Hello out there all you Poker Junkies. The World Series of Poker is just a short four months away. Recently, I talked to a few pros about their thoughts regarding the 2025 WSOP.

Those that I spoke to were Barry Greenstein, former WSOP Main Event Tom McEvoy, Poker Hall of Famer Barbara Enright, and Poker Junkie friend Matt “AllInat420″ Stout.

I asked both Barry, Tom, and Matt as to their opinions about the 2025 WSOP schedule and this were their responses:

Barry Greenstein: “I am on the WSOP committee, so I had a chance to look at the schedule as it was being developed.  Along with the rest of the commitee, I signed off on it, so I guess you can say I approve.”

Tom McEvoy:  “I have reviewed the World Series schedule for 2025 and I like what I see. I especially like the fact there are no rebuys again this year and the fact they have added several $1000 buy-in events.”

Matt Stout:  “I’m pretty happy with the changes made from 2025 to 2025 in the WSOP schedule…. There is some good in the changes, though. Due to the overwhelmingly popular $1k NL “stimulus special,” the WSOP now has six $1k NL events as well as a ton of $1500 events. This indicates a great job on the part of WSOP to recognize how significantly the current economy impacts tournament fields. Many recreational players who may have skipped this WSOP completely this year due to financial strains may instead come out with a few grand to take some shots at the 1k and 1500 events.”

Next, I asked Barry and Tom whether they favored the change to the 8 game format for the $50,000 “Players Championship.”

Barry Greenstein:  “I had been campaigning for the 50k event to be 8-game instead of HORSE since its inception, but I was outvoted until this year.  If we are really going to talk about the winner as if he is a great all around player, then we need all the most popular games to be included.”

Tom McEvoy: “I like the 8 game format because it is a truer test of the skill level of each player. They must play all these extra games well to have a chance to win the tournament.”

I then asked Tom and Barry as to whether there were any events that they were looking forward to.

Barry Greenstein:  “I consider all the $10,000 and higher buy-in events to be championship events since they tend to get elite fields.  I plan on playing in all of them unless I’m deep in an event from a previous day.”

Tom McEvoy:  ” I will always love the main event first and foremost, but I like the lower buy-in events, especially Pot Limit Omaha and No Limit Hold’em.”

(If you remember, Tom McEvoy was the first ever person to satellite into the World Series of Poker Main Event in 2025.  He then went on to win the Main Event that year to make him the first satellite entrant to win a WSOP Main Event.)

Finally, I asked both Tom and Barry as to what their expectations would be for the 2025 WSOP.

Barry Greenstein:  “2025 was the first year I started playing a lot of events (about 20 each year) at the WSOP.  I have won three bracelets in the six years I have made that kind of effort.  So I expect to get a bracelet this year, even though it has only happened half the time.”

Tom McEvoy:  “For the 2025 WSOP I expect to play maybe 15 events, depending on my stamina and how long I last in each event. I strive to do my best and that is all I can expect of myself. I will try to get enough rest and eat properly during the tournament.”

Earlier in the article, you may have noticed that Tom McEvoy was pleased that re-buy events were left out of the 2025 WSOP.   Matt Stout had a very different view about the re-buy situation:

Matt Stout:  “I’m still bitter that they took away my favorite type of WSOP prelim after 2025: the 1k+rebuy NL event. All rebuys were cut with the general explanation being that they allow people to “buy bracelets” by gambling a lot in rebuy hour and having a bigger bankroll than your opponents so that you can afford to do so. 

However, they began running astronomically high ($25k-40k) buy-in events soon after the elimination of the rebuy events. Now who is buying bracelets? The $25k-40k events are drawing relatively tiny fields that allow the elite to “buy bracelets” anyway. I think the real reason they were cut is that rebuy period is a chaotic time for tournament staff and opens up the opportunity for skimming off the top too easily.”

My favorite reply actually came from Poker Hall of Famer Barbara Enright.  I sent her the request for interview, and she replied with the following:

Barbara Enright:  “I hope this doesn’t disappoint you for your blog but I plan on being on a trip around the world during the WSOP this year. So, being as I won’t attend, it doesn’t matter.”

Barbara is forward and to the point as always.  Of course, part of me wonders if she will take the trip or if the itch to play will become too great.  I know personally, I would take the trip and come back next year.

As you can see, the pros are beginning to gear up for the 2025 WSOP. (Except Barbara, she is probably picking out cruise liners.)  The 2025 WSOP promises a lot of action and something for everyone.  We here at poker junkie will keep you informed of all the happening and the biggest news from the 2025 WSOP and rest of the poker world.

Before folding a losing hand, you should always consider if you could pick up the pot with a bluff. You need to estimate your bluff equity, and if it’s positive, you need to carry out the bluff.

Let’s say you’re certain that the opponent has your hand beaten. There’s still a chance that he or she will fold if you put in a bet, in which case you’ll pick up the pot despite holding the worst hand.

Calculating your bluff equity

To figure out whether a bluff is good or bad, we must calculate the value of the bluff, that is, your bluff equity. In this calculation, we’ll play around with the following parameters:

P = the pot size

B = the size of your bluff bet

f = the probability that the opponent folds if you bet

If you bluff and the opponent folds, you win the pot, P. If you bluff and get called, you lose your bet, B. If the opponent raises, you fold and lose B as well.

So the expected value of your bluff is given by this expression:

E = fP – (1-f)B

Folding a hand costs nothing, so the value of not bluffing is 0. Consequently, for the bluff to be better than folding, E must be > 0. This gives us the following requirement:

fP > (1-f)B

Which is the same as:

f > B / (P+B)

If the probability that the opponent folds is greater than the above ratio, bluffing is correct. Then, bluffing will earn you money (in the long run) and it would be a mistake not to bluff in this situation.

Example 1 – Pot Sized Bet

There’s $100 in the pot. How likely must the opponent be to fold in order for a pot sized bluff to be correct?

P = 100, B = 100 -> f > 100/200 = 1/2

If a fold is more than 50% likely, a pot sized bluff bet earns you money in the long run.

Example 2 – Smaller Bet

There’s $100 in the pot, you plan to bet a third of the pot, that is, B = $33. How likely must the opponent be to fold to this bet in order for the bluff to be profitable?

P = 100, B = 33 -> f > 33/133 = 1/4

If a fold is more than 25% likely, the small bluff will earn you money in the long run. (Always that long run…)

Example 3 – Bluff Sizing

There’s $100 in the pot and you think there’s a 20% chance that the opponent will fold to a bet. How much should you bet?

To solve this we have to isolate B in the expression fP > (1-f)B. We arrive at the following requirement for the maximum bet size:

B < P * f/(1-f)

That is, the bet must be smaller than the expression to the right, which we can read as the size of the pot times the fold odds (as opposed to fold probability).

In this example, the fold odds is 0.2/0.8 (which is the same as 2/8 or 1/4), and so the bet has to be smaller than P/4 for the bluff to be correct. You can bluff bet up to $25.

With fold odds of 1/2 (that is, 33% chance of folding), your bluff bet should be smaller than P/2.

With fold odds of 2/5 (40%), your bluff bet should not be bigger than 2P/5, that is, around 0.4*P.

Complications

In real life, things are a bit more complicated, as usual.

There’s always the chance that your hand is actually a winner.

The probability that the opponent folds usually depends on the size of your bet. This dependence can be very complex.

Typically, bigger bets are harder to call than smaller bets.

Bets that are seen as either too small OR too big may often induce a call, while “normally” sized bets are less suspicious and easier to fold to.

We’ll look at these complications in future articles on bluff equity.

/Charlie River

Over the past 13 days, the player known as “Isildur1″ on Full Tilt Poker has netted himself over $6 million dollars in profits. 

“Isildur1″ has decisively smashed some of the very best poker players in the world during the first two weeks of March. 

“Isildur1″ has helped relieve Tom “durrrr” Dwan of nearly $5 million dollars of his bankroll. He has beaten Patrik Antonius for nearly a million dollars in a single session. The list goes on and on – “isildur1″ is clearly not afraid to play anyone. 

According to highstakesdb, “Isildur1″ is up $6,023,436 over 65,676 tracked hands. This works out to an average profit of over $91 per hand – not bad, considering that all of this profit came against some of the top cash game players in the world. 

Thanks to his incredible run over the past 13 days, “Isildur1″ is now the second most profitable player on Full Tilt Poker in 2025. He currently sits with a total profit of $5.033 million dollars on the year, which is about $900k less than Patrik Antonius. 

Despite his torrid run over the past couple of weeks, the high stakes regulars on Full Tilt Poker aren’t avoiding “Isildur1″ (yet anyways). It should be interesting to see if “Isildur1″ can keep this going, or if he is heading for a “martonas”-like flameout. 

One thing is for sure – the high stakes games are much more entertaining when “Isildur1″ is sitting. 

One player that is certainly hoping to see “Isildur1″ break is Tom “durrrr” Dwan. “durrrr” is down over $4.6 million dollars in March alone, and over $5 million dollars for all of 2025. I’m not sure how big his bankroll is, but a loss this big surely has to sting very badly. 

All eyes will be on “Isildur1″ in the days and weeks ahead. Will he continue to mow down the best players in the world on Full Tilt Poker, or will the momentum start to shift?

Phil Ivey simply can't find enough action. Even though the main-event final table is scheduled to begin today at 12:23 p.m. PST, Ivey is reportedly still looking to make bets with any doubters out there.

"He said to us he would win an additional $5 or $6 million, and he's looking to bet more on himself," Eli Elezra, a friend of Ivey's and one of his main competitors at the Big Game at Bellagio, told Card Player on Thursday afternoon.

Ivey, who at 33 became the youngest person to win sevenWorld Series of Poker bracelets this past summer, is at the first WSOP main event of his career and will be seeking his first no-limit hold'em bracelet ever. He enters play seventh in chips, with 9.765 million — or 5% of the chips in play.

The fact that Ivey has made some side bets on himself taking down the tournament is not a surprise to those who know him. With a reputation that precedes him, he regularly places mind-boggling bets both at the craps tables and on sports. But for this once-in-a-lifetime event (though with Ivey, you never know), the avid gambler has been pulling out all of the stops.

"He'd win a lot of money [in side bets if he won the main event]," said Barry Greenstein, one of Ivey's good friends on the poker circuit, mentioning Andy Bloch and Tom Dwan as the ones who have the most to lose come Tuesday, when a winner will be crowned. "Ivey is such a sick person — sick in a good way of course."

The Andy Bloch Bet

Bloch's bet has been well documented. With still a monstrous field of roughly 2,500 players remaining in this year's main event, Bloch offered Ivey 99:1 odds that he wouldn't win the tournament.

"He took $20,000 from his pocket and he threw it to Andy," Elezra said. That spur-of-the-moment decision could cost Bloch nearly $2 million.

"Everybody is rooting for Phil Ivey. I would be too if I didn't have a bet against him," Bloch told Card Player TV at theFesta al Lago main event a couple weeks ago. "I could be on the hook for $2 million if he wins unless I can figure out some kind of settlement beforehand, but with Phil Ivey, that's going to be tough…[I] just talked to him briefly, but… our numbers are pretty far apart. And he's a gambler. He's like, 'I'd like to increase the bet.'"

As of today, there is no indication that the two competitors have settled the bet, so Bloch would have to fork over $2 million if he lost. But ironically, in the high-stakes gambling world where everyone is always looking to get a piece of everyone else's action, most of that money would not go to Ivey.

Elezra tells of how the Great Dane, Gus Hansen, purchased the rights to the lion's share of Ivey's bet.

"Gus heard about this bet when there were like a thousand people left or whatever, and he told Phil Ivey, let me buy this bet," Elezra relayed. Ivey let Hansen get in on the action, buying him out, but making him agree to give him $900,000 of the $2 million if he did indeed pull off the monumental task. Hansen agreed, and Ivey landed himself a "$900,000 freeroll," according to Elezra.

The Tom Dwan Bet

Before the buzz had even begun to subside from the poker community becoming aware of the Bloch bet, Tom "durrrr" Dwan reportedly admitted that he would have to give Ivey $1 million as well if he were to become world champion.

"I think he has a bet with durrrr; they had a win bet," said Greenstein. "It was kind of on a lark, and it may have been made even before the thing started. It was one of those bets that you would never anticipate coming into action."

The bet was likely a must-win bet for either of the two poker superstars. With 6,494 entrants in the 2025 main event, it just didn't seem probable that either of them would navigate through the massive field to collect the $8.5 million prize.

Now, Dwan — who is currently up nearly $800,000 in the on-again-off-again durrrr challenge with Patrik Antonius — might have to ship all of those profits and then some to Ivey.

Ivey vs. the World

The bet with Bloch and the reported wager with Dwan may be the only seven-figure bets that have been commonly speculated on, but Ivey likely has a number of smaller — but still far from insignificant — bets with other people in the poker community.

"He's got some random bets, like the standing bet with Daniel (Negreanu) if they play in the same event and one wins, the winner gets $200,000," said Greenstein. Mike Matusow also reportedly said on Full Tilt chat that he would owe Ivey $100,000 if he came back to win the main event, and Phil Gordon said on Full Tilt he would be "quaking in his boots" because of an unspecified bet that he made with Ivey.

But, in an effort to offset their potential losses to Ivey and perhaps make a big score for themselves, both Negreanu and Matusow have been collecting action from other players — and this time, they're betting on the other side of the coin, on Ivey's ability to take down the event.

Elezra said Negreanu was taking a ton of action on a must-win bet where he would have Ivey and the other bettor would have chip leader Darvin Moon. Although Moon has a large chip lead (58.93 million, or about 30% of the chips in play) and nearly six times the amount that Ivey has, he is considered one of the most inexperienced players remaining and has himself downplayed his success, saying he's just the beneficiary of an insane run of cards.

Many people believe that when it gets to short-handed play, Moon's amateur mistakes will show and he will have a difficult time closing the deal. And, of course, many people believe if Ivey can double up early and collect a few more chips, he will be nearly impossible to stop.

Ten-time bracelet winner Doyle Brunson was the first person to publicly acknowledge that he was taking that bet, announcing in a recent blog that he will be rooting on Moon at the final table.

"I thought I would be pulling for Phil Ivey and Jeff Shulman at the WSOP final table. But when Daniel wanted to bet Ivey over Moon, I had to take Moon who has five times the chips of Ivey," said Brunson. "It is a must-win bet so probably we won't have action. Sorry Phil, I won't be rooting for you now. Business is business."

However, just like Negreanu, Brunson eventually thought better of betting against his friend. Brunson posted on his Twitter account this morning: "I reversed my bets against Ivey. I gave Gus Hansen my 50K bet against him. I am now officially pulling for Ivey and Shulman for 135K." (Spelling errors in original Twitter post corrected; special thanks to CPreader "Prieure" for making us aware of this info.)

But Brunson was far from the only one interested in the bet.

Negreanu allowed Elezra to take 10% of his action and the two quickly began collecting bets from a host of interested parties.

"We've gotten up to $1 million already. We've got (John) Juanda, Howard Lederer, Nick Schulman…we've got six or seven people," said Elezra.

Cash-games pro Brian Rast told Card Player that he made a $25,000 wager with Negreanu and a $10,000 bet with Matusow on a must-win bet. Rast has Moon; they have Ivey.

But as soon as Ivey heard about all of the bets Negreanu was collecting, he immediately announced that he wanted in on the deal.

"He took half of the action, so Phil would get half a million dollars, Daniel would get $400,000, and I would get $100,000," said Elezra.

"It's like betting against God."

Elezra says he's learned his lesson, and is happy that he decided not to bet against Ivey during the main event.

After losing $400,000 to Ivey after he won his first bracelet of the summer, the Full Tilt pro tried to convince Elezra to let it ride. He almost agreed, but the two gamblers couldn't decide whether Ivey should get 4.3 to 1 or 4.7 to 1 odds on the likelihood that he would win a second bracelet at theWSOP, so Elezra decided to just settle his bet and move on. He's certainly glad he did now, as Ivey won another bracelet and then reached the main-event final table.

"It's like betting against God," said Elezra. "What are the odds that he would this?"

Greenstein believes there may be others who didn't get away as well as Elezra did. "Obviously this qualifies as a win in a bracelet bet," he said.

Although so many poker players consistently say Ivey is the greatest in the game right now, they still can't help themselves when he puts up such attractive odds. Ivey may be squaring off against a group of mostly unknown faces today, but in reality, he has a chance to win quite a lot of money off of some very familiar foes—including Bloch, Dwan, Lederer, Juanda, Schulman, Matusow, and Negreanu.

And still, he is itching for more action.

"He's ready to put up to $2 million on himself at 6:1," said Elezra. "I heard Juanda is considering it."

It is possible when it's all said and done that Ivey would make more from side bets and bonuses than he would from actually winning the main event. So while the rest of the table fights it out for the $8.5 million first place prize, Ivey will try to unofficially eclipse Jamie Gold's 2025 record for the most money won in a single poker tournament. Gold won $12 million for his 2025 main-event victory.